Hello traders,

It seems to me that USDJPY is facing some sort of dilemma right now on the longer time frames (weekly charts). Let me explain myself:

In one hard, we’ve broken the downtrend that’s been in place ever since summer 2007, so that’s a full year downtrend. Moreover, the trendline breakout is being confirmed as we speak by a text-book breakout-pullback-continuation pattern. All of you who’ve taken my Forex course will know that a B-P-C pattern is nothing but a confirmation of a breakout from a technical analysis point of view. So yeah, that down trendline seems to be broken for good which is a bullish signal.

Now, in the other hand, the key support/resistance level for USDJPY is still holding price below. That level is 108.50 / 109.00, and it’s been tested over and over again throughout the last three years. For the time being that level is holding price below which is a bearish signal.

So what is it then, bullish or bearish? hence the dilemma.

Here’s my take on the issue: if price breaks above 109.00 we go into full bullish mode on the Yen and thus I’ll be looking for long entries. Conversely, if price remains below 109.00, I will probably stay out of the Yen altogether.

Hello folks,

Today I have a little bit of free time so I wanted to share a chart with you.

Have you noticed that EUR/USD has been moving within a recurrent pattern throughout the last two years? It seems like EUR/USD moves in 1000-pip blocks, then consolidates for three or four months and finally it pushes up another 1000-pip run before consolidating again.

Please pull your EUR/USD weekly chart so you can follow along with me: in mid-2006 price flapped sideways for few months in the 1.2xxx whereabouts. Then, in fall 2006, it popped the range and ran up into the 1.3xxx where it ranged sideways once again in mid 2007 for another 3 or 4 months. Fast forward to fall 2007 and… pop-it-goes into the 1.40xx, where once again it ranged sideways for another 3 or 4 months in late 2007/early 2008.

The last run-up took place in spring 2008 when price rocketed from 1.5000 to 1.6000, and ever since we’ve been ranging sideways for… bingo! 3 or 4 months!

What am I getting down to? well, it seems to me that EUR/USD has been following a repetitive “move-congestion-move” pattern throughout the last two years, and as of lately we’ve been toying around the 1.6000 barrier after having bounced around the 1.50′ies for quite a while… I wonder: is EUR/USD ready for another 1000-pip run to 1.7000 soon?

Screenshot attached below:

Hello everyone!

Yes, yes, I know. It’s been ages I haven’t posted on the blog and I must apologize for that. I didn’t mean to stop posting this abruptly but I didn’t expect to be this busy either. Let me explain…

Few weeks ago I was offered to get involved in a very interesting project with the right bunch of people. You know, that kind of opportunity you just cannot say “no”. Well, at the beginning it was meant to be only a two-week thing, but somehow it’s stretched out into something way more complex (and demanding!). That’s why I didn’t post anything, because I wasn’t supposed to be away for long… but as it happens, it’s been already two months and there’s no sign of this -damn- project to be finished any time soon…

So I just wanted to drop a few lines here on the blog to let you all know that I am still around - I just haven’t been able to keep up with the blog: after my daily trading routine, I work in this new project for few more hours all the way until dinner time. Quite frankly guys, the last thing I feel like doing after dinner is to sit at the computer, upload videos on my server, post on the blog, etc. It’s too much and there are just so many things one man can cope with at once without going crazy :p

To sum it up: for the time being I need to continue putting the blog on hold until my work-load somewhat slows down back to normal levels. I swear sometimes I wish I didn’t sign up for this new business I’m dug into, but well, oh well…

Anyway guys, that’s all for now. As usual, please be very welcome to send me any email, question or chart you wish. I will be glad to help you out as much as possible no matter whether it’s here on the blog or by email.

I will be speaking to you soon… or at least I hope so!!!


-HECTOR-

Hello traders.

Today I have taken no trade despite the fact that at one point early this morning I was about to trigger a long entry on EURAUD: it was a typical London Open Breakout type of trade and, as price broke above the high of the Tokyo session, I was sharpening my claws to get a piece of the move. However, upon having checked the longer time frames, I decided not to due to the powerful long-term downtrend falling in the neighborhood. So I decided to play it safe and passed on the setup all together.

Perhaps it’s best if I just show you the video…

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Hello traders,

Today I took a quick intraday trade on the Aussie (AUDUSD). You know, aiming for nothing but a fistful of pips before launch time for the lack on any better trading opportunity around.

Today’s trade is a clear example of Round Numbers as I explain them on chapter #4 of my Forex trading course, and more specifically how they work as “pivot points” for intraday price action.

In this particular case, I saw the Aussie breaking through the 0.9600 round number -which had worked as resistance yesterday- and I went long aiming for the next round number at 0.9650. The swing took place in quite a momentum considering the Aussie is a slow-moving currency pair and I managed to fish +26 pips within an hours and a half or so.

Let me show you the live video here below.

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