Jan
15
No I don’t, but the CHF does seem to hate me indeed. Not only I scored a -33 pip loss yesterday on GBPCHF but moreover today I have been further humbled on USDCHF for -28 pips.
Quite frankly, today’s setup has me puzzled, I really don’t get it. Check this out guys:
- We had a clear downtrend
- We had a range breakout to the downside
- We had bearish news for the USD
- So I obviously enter short on USDCHF and…
- … And rockets up 80 pips with 2 hours! Anyone care to explain please?
I always say that trading does carry a dangerous component of chaotic randomness that spices up the whole thing. Something akin the “0″ square on the roulette. You could think you have all the bets covered and still score a loss and you don’t even know why. Otherwise Forex trading would be too easy (and boring!).
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16 January, 12:35 am
Hector,
as you know, I have been reading your blog and like it a lot. What I noticed with this setup are the followings:
first, you ignored ATR, the par has moved way too much when you entered short and it has fulfilled the average daily range.
second, the timing was late. You do London breakouts, whereas it was not a London break out.
third, the carry fell apart giving a boost to the Usd
forth, when everything seems juts right, as you said in the video technically and funamentally, then comes trouble.
Dont get me wrong, this is not criticism, I just point out what you might have overlooked.
Happy Trading
16 January, 12:45 am
Hello Hector!
Don’t mind… It’s just trading:-)
I got a few pips (13) on EURCHF (always Switzerland..) on a short entry in H1 time frame at 4,10 GMT+1 more or less.
Your voice in the video didn’t seem to be of an upset person…congratulations for not getting involved too much, that’s a great thing to succeed… so let’s go and find a new (winning) set up chart!
Ciao.
Carlo
16 January, 4:05 am
Hi Hector,
Its lucky the Swiss make good chocolate otherwise it would be war! lol
I almost took this trade myself, but the tail breakout made me wait for a retrace to look for entry. I cant stand tail breaks.
All the best
Fabio
16 January, 5:41 am
ciaoo guys
early morning 7am london time had some good entries in cad. nzdcad, eurcad and audcad looked good, took the nzdcad and got burned, lost 37 pips. anybody had the same ideas in cad? saw also the usdchf trade, but was luckely at a meeting.
hector, is there a higher risk in trading early morning at the european opening? because your entries are normally after 8.30 am london time. what is your experience??
good luck for today
hugoool
16 January, 8:19 am
LOL.. Everything sets up nicely, and still end up a loss. That’s the fun part of trading, isn’t it? :-)
arghh..I just stomached a AUD/USD loss as well. Well, what to do? LOL…
16 January, 8:53 am
I think the reason why the CHF had such a spike upward is based upon the fact that it was the last currency that still had support against the Yen. Both the Euro and the Chf were the only currencies that did not succumb to yen strength; well, until the Euro’s break today. I certainly think that people underestimate the power of the yen carry trade and the Chf had support on the daily chart.
16 January, 11:35 am
Hi guys
had yesterday already at 7am london time a position. nzdcad, audcad and eurcad looked good, unfortunatly my nzdcad ended with 35 pips loss. saw also usdchf, luckely i had a meeting at this time and missed it.
hector, what is your expirience with early opening a trade. is it better to wait until 8.30am london time like you do it, because the market has unpredictable up and downswings at european opening???
or we all had a bit a bad day yesterday.
good luck today to all
hugoool
16 January, 11:57 am
Thanks for all the comments guys.
Yes I agree. JPY is the currency to follow at this time, not CHF. I messed up big time there.
Oh well, I guess it’s time for me to read my own Forex course haha!
-HECTOR-
16 January, 2:25 pm
hello Hector!…..sorry about the trade results on this one…..
through my eyes,..this set-up had 3 red flags .. on your 15 minute entry chart the 30 sma moved up across the 50 just prior to the breakout , there is a major league “dragon-fly doji” that you are using as your breakout candlestick and then a spinning top at your entry….,..are these not all signs of a potential and looming reversal?..
…i dont see your typical ‘breakout’ (a closed candlestick below support) then a ‘pull back’ and fluid ‘continuation’ here….
I appreciate your blog tremendously!
james forexroadmap.com
16 January, 4:11 pm
It’s kind of funny. I actually took exactlly the same trade as Hector. Even the entry was within some pips the same as Hector’s.
I was so confident about this trade that it should have warned me. the Signals have been so strong.
As I searched for the reasons of failure I came up with the idea that the low of November was protected by a lot of Buy Orders of the Big Players underneath the low.
All in all it was bad luck that the Big Ones just have chosen this particular price area to act as a stronger longterm area of support.
16 January, 4:32 pm
I dunno guys, I have re-studied this trade and the only hairy point I could single out would be the ADR being not far from being reached by the time of entry. All the rest (especially the news) were really supporting the shorts.
Who knows, perhaps it was simply one of those weird trades that are meant to curl belly up no matter what.
-HECTOR-
16 January, 4:35 pm
Hi Hector,
I actually got in a little earlier on the USDCHF yesterday when in the hourly timeframe it made a pullback to the dynamic area. I then had a perfect breakout, pullback, continuation of that level which netted me +22 pips, nicely closed out 5 mins before the news hit.
Don’t worry though, I didn’t escape that easily! I later mis-timed a trade on GBPCHF which stung me for -62 pips.
We all make mistakes, the key is to learn and move on.
:-)
16 January, 4:36 pm
Hi Hugooool,
Sorry I missed your comment: “”hector, what is your expirience with early opening a trade. is it better to wait until 8.30am london time like you do it, because the market has unpredictable up and downswings at european opening???”"
Sometimes we do see some early-morning swings prior the London open, probably as Tokyo traders unwind their positions before closing the shop for the day. However, quite frankly, there’s no chance I am waking up at 5 AM in the morning to trade those rare early moves! So as far as I am concerned I only seek for trades from London open onwards :)
-HECTOR-
16 January, 6:05 pm
I fought back the CHF! ;-)
Hector i like to tell you that your system actually works in the 5min timeframe.
I just played the GBP/CHF in the 5min chart (2.1480)
for a total of 40pips.
So i partly reinstalled our honour against the CHF :-)
Greets
Benny
16 January, 6:08 pm
Hey Benny, well done!
Aye I know my system works on the 5 minutes too - I am just too clumsy at the micro time frames to profit from them :p
-HECTOR-
16 January, 6:35 pm
GBPCHF? 5min? Isn’t that against the overall downtrend which we’re seeing in the 4H and Daily charts?
Good job on your pips Benny, but as far as Hector’s system goes, from my understanding, he never trades against the larger time frames if they in contradiction.
Just my 2 pips ;-)
16 January, 7:01 pm
@Chris:
Take a look at the 1h timeframe. you can clearly see a weakening Downtrend. (SMA crossing for example)
For a quick 5min trade that was enough indication for me.
17 January, 5:37 am
Hector, I figured it out. Big money has been reading your blog and they know you’re influencing thousands of traders, so they know where you 30 pip stop was and they went hunting for it. See, your secret is out of the bag. lol
17 January, 12:02 pm
Big Money reading my blog? damn it, at least they could pay for my course!!!!
-HECTOR-