Feb
19
Today I spotted a text-book flat-top triangle breakout in the Kiwi (NZDUSD). This currency pair has been finding resistance around the 0.7950 level ever since November 07 and today my sound alarm went ape letting me know that finally the Kiwi had broken free of the resistance-chains. I was expecting to see a major market reaction upon this breakout since like I said that level had been holding price below for about three months!
So I was hawking the shorter time frames for an entry, which showed up in the shape of a breakout-pullback-formation of a flat-top triangle in the 30 minutes chart. Upon entry, price cruised north smoothly for about +20 to +25 pips, breaching the 0.8000 psychological barrier. However, around the second half of the London session, price dived once again below that 0.8000 and I decided to bail out, manually exiting the position. I cannot really explain why, but my gut feeling raised the red flag in the back of my mind. I mean, I was really expecting a HUGE bullish day today after the breakout of that three-month-long resistance roof and failing to sustain the 0.8000 sort of gave me the creeps. I guess it’s one of those things you perceive when you’ve been in this business for a while.
So all in all a tiny -9 pip loss on this trade. But seeing how the Kiwi has continued to drop in the following hours I can safely say that this loss certainly has a sweet taste to it, doesn’t it?
Let’s watch the video!
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20 February, 1:54 am
Good call on the minimizing of the loss. It sure looks like there is easy money to be made on the short GBP pairs at the moment.
Hector, is it possible if you can add a Weekly column on your dashboard template?
20 February, 8:16 pm
Hi,
I can’t figure out why your setupchart is the daily and your triggerchart is the 30min instead of the 4H.
20 February, 10:50 pm
Is it just me or is the market pretty undeceive
about where it wants to go lately?
Has anyone made any decent trades/profit in the last two weeks?
Every potential setup I see seems to have some conflicting signal that violates
my trade plan. Even the setups that look ok don’t seem to get
very far after the theoretical entry breakout.
The AUD/CAD 20th Feb looked promising at 09:00 but, like Hector,
my gut feeling wouldn’t let me pursue it.
Oh well,..
In this forex game, you can either be the ‘Lion’ or the ‘Antelope’.
Whilst the antelope jump about frantically, in and out of the bushes,
the Lion waits ..and waits.. and waits
..for the ideal scenario to ‘come to him’
..and only then - go for the big kill!
I’m glad Hector taught me how to stop being the Antelope and start being the Lion!
..however, I’m just a little bored ..and hungry at the moment
*yawn*
*flick tail*
20 February, 11:39 pm
hi Hector and blogers,,
Hector i was curious, going back over your “loss sweet loss” trade,,did you discover any under lying reason the trade turned south on you, such as crossing moving averages in a particular time frame?…or does it just get logged in your trading journal as a mystery never to be solved?..
thanks for the reply,
james
at your affiliate ,
http://www.forexroadmap.com/FXvirtualOffice.html
21 February, 12:33 am
Hi guys, thanks for the comments!
Tom - I’ll see what I can do about that.
Roman - it wasn’t a Daily setup, but it was wrapped up by the breakout in the Daily chart. I was hoping to see a major breakout move so I zoomed into the intraday charts to search for my entry.
Paris - absolutely! I have been struggling to keep afloat in this month of February. Indeed the worst month in like a full year! PS: you have the right mind-set: be a lion, not the antelope :) I love the analogy.
James - the reason that made feel uncomfortable was losing the 0.8000 round number. Once it broke through to the upside, and given the breakout of the 3-month-long resistance level in the Daily chart, I was REALLY expecting a powerful up thrust all the way to 0.8100… when the 0.8000 couldn’t sustain price I decided that something was not quite right and I manually exited the position.
Cheers,
-HECTOR-