Feb
26
Hello everyone,
I wanted to update you folks on what’s ticking on my screen. The Kiwi trade is still moving forward (+125 pips as I type these lines), plus I am following few other setups that seem rather interesting at a first glance. I tell you what: please watch the video below, review the setups and post your comments on this post letting me know your thoughts on them.
Let’s talk Forex!
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26 February, 11:36 pm
Fantastic Hector!
It shows in your voice the excitment of the kiwi ostrich let loose. Let’s hope it runs for at least another 200 pips ;) When you say ‘I take out half my lot size and let the rest run’, that means that if you have 2 open lots, you close the 1st, set the second stop loss to break even (so the worst thing that could happen is just get pips from the 1st lot, and +0 from the 2nd lot)…. my question is though, how long do you let the 2nd lot run (if it’s still giving you pip after pip after pip) ? because if you let it run for too long, it might turn around and get sour on you.
26 February, 11:55 pm
Kiwi, Kiwi - go, go ;)
27 February, 1:42 am
Hello Hector,
I’m looking at USD/JPY, it looks like it broke through its consolidation channel on its way down from 107.50,
I’m going short from here and wanted to get your professional opinion thanks.
p.s. love your site Eric.
27 February, 10:51 am
heavy … 25% out @0.8203. I have not so strong nervs.
27 February, 11:20 am
Daniel - the potential full projection of this Kiwi trade is 0.8400
Eric - Aye I see your setup. I am liking how the final uptrend on the 4H chart coming from the 23rd of January has been broken today at London open.
Gmarg - Chicken! :p No seriously, nothing wrong with offsetting a bit of the risk, cashing some money in the bank. Well done mate :)
-HECTOR-
27 February, 4:06 pm
Hello there guys
I wanted to ask you this. Let’s say you wanna start trading just minilots 10000$. Since EFX charges you 5 $ commission for lots (100000$) and minilots(10000$) plus spread(let’s say 0.5 $ in a really good case) so 5.5$ in total as minimum. Then I wonder, wouldn’t it be a better choice ACM broker for retail traders who just want to open minilots 10000$ positions?
With the ACM mini account you have the following currency pairs and you don’t pay any commission:
EURUSD 0.0004
USDJPY 0.04
USDCHF 0.0004
GBPUSD 0.0004
EURJPY 0.04
EURCHF 0.0004
EURGBP 0.0004
AUDUSD 0.0004
USDCAD 0.0005
NZDUSD 0.0005
NZDJPY 0.06
AUDJPY 0.08
GBPCHF 0.0008
GBPJPY 0.10
GBPCAD 0.0015
USDHKD 0.0008
USDSGD 0.0007
EURNOK 0.0038
Well I know that the second part of this list is not that cheap in spread, but just for the first part wouldn’t it be worth thinking of ACM as a good choice? Actually they have 11 currency pairs with 6 or lower sum of spread plus commision. Isn’t that good for traders willing to open just minilots positions? Well, as for me, I think so but want your opinion guys.
One more think, as far as I know, ACM is not an ECN but it’s an STP. For that reason, I want to ask you whether ACM is really going to pass your orders into the real interbank Market or not as most retail brokers do.
I just want to make clear that I do not work as an exective for ACM but I am just trying to find the best retail broker for those wanting to open minilots orders as me.
Besides, having read old posts from this blog I know that usually brokers that use metatrader4 are not the cheapest ones. But ACM does not use metatrader4.
However, I wonder whether anybody could possibly tell me the best retail broker with metatrader 4 you have found until now in terms of realiabilty, lowest sum commission plus spread for minilots, no dealing desk, and ECN. I saw several choices in old posts of this blog as North finance suggested for its no good customer service, Oanda or sth like that, and may be more … But could you please tell me which one eventually would decide as the best retail broker with metatrader4 bearing in mind my realiability, lowest cost per minilot, no dealing desk and ECN?
I look forward for your answers really soon.
I really appreciate your help.
Good luck and good trading guys
27 February, 4:43 pm
Holly post Manuel!
Anyway, one small correction: EFX charges $5 per $100k traded. If you trade minilots, the commission in $0.5 per $10k, not $5.
Cheers!
-HECTOR-
27 February, 5:53 pm
hello Hector
ok, I’ve just checked that Hector, you are right, EFX charges 0.5$ to open a minilot order and 0.5 more dollars to close that minilot order. So just 1$ in total for commission plus the spread which does not seem much. Anyways, I’ve just checked they charge 20$ for domestic wire transfer and 30$ for foreign wire transfer which seems to me quite expensive, isn’t? Well, I do not know much about these fees in other retail brokers but certainly 30$ for foreign wire transfer does not seem very good. As always, I guess, that if there is nothing better….
I appreciate any comment you do to this post.
27 February, 5:56 pm
Hi Hector
The GBP/CHF setup I believed was triggered and I’ve just shorted it at 2.1208 with SL at 2.1256.
It’s taking me for a roller coaster now.
*Crosses finger*
27 February, 6:35 pm
Gongratulations on the great Kiwi trade!
One question regarding this trade: On my daily chart i have an up channel beginning on 25/09/2007. Don’t you consider it valid? If i had taken this trade i probably would have closed half at 0.8120, more or less the upper line of the channel in my chart. What is your view?
thanks,
Jaime.
27 February, 7:32 pm
Hector: MY EUR/USD Broke out today!!!!! YIIIPPPPEEEEE :P +130 PIPS already :P Man if every trade was like this! Great stuff :P
27 February, 8:12 pm
Two more questions:
1. do you know if EFX guarantees stop loss orders under all circumstances including high volatility times like fundamentals news release?
2. Do you know what would happen in this case?
If you had opened a buy order EURUSD at 1.4800 with a stop loss order EURUSD at 1.4750 both on Friday evening GMT and you find EURUSD at 1.4700 two days after( next Sunday evening GMT) because it went down a hundred pips during the weekend.
Would you get filled your stop loss order with an EFX account altough right after at the beginning of the week altough the price is already at 1.4700 and did not touch the 1.4750 level where your stop loss order is?
I hope having explained it properly.
Look forward to seeing your replies.
27 February, 9:51 pm
Syrix - congratulations, you should be in the money big time by now!
Jaime - I personally don’t see any up-channel top around 0.8120. Please upload a screenshot so I can see what you’re seeing :)
Daniel - Good stuff man. I am waiting myself for a pullback on EURUSD in order to search for longs. I hope I didn’t miss this train altogether!
Manuel - No ECN guarantees stoploss, slippage can hit you. Regarding your EURUSD example, you’d probably be filled at Sunday open price.
-HECTOR-
27 February, 10:15 pm
Syrix - I have personally entered GBPCHF at 2.1172 (a little bit of more risk never hurt anyone except my pocket). Already +98 pips in profit. What profit targets are you shooting for ?
27 February, 10:19 pm
Before I forget, Mr. Hector also mentioned GBPJPY unfolding some time soon….. I guess that we should soon see this.It seems to be coming out of its consolidation at 211.00 roughly as I type. Is it a coincidence that this unfolding occurs shortly after GBPCHF ? Well, I’ll definately be searching for going short on this pair following the famous breakout-pullback-continuation.
Hector I swear man - if this continues going as positive as it’s been this week, I’ll get a tatoo on my @$$ with a 1-2-3- continuation pattern someplace ;)
27 February, 10:23 pm
-Syrix- - Sorry I meant that I took less of a risk than you :) What profit are you sitting on at the moment?
27 February, 10:28 pm
Well, Hector, thanks you for your answer. Nonetheless, I had read in a book that there are just a few forex brokers which guarantees stoploss orders under all circumstances among which you can find ACM. For that reason I called them yesterday and was speaking to an executive from ACM. When I asked him, he told me ACM is the only forex broker worldwide which indeed guarantees stoploss orders under all circumstances including high volatility times and weekend periods. Now, since you Hector tell me that, I think I will have to do some aditional research through an external entity outside of ACM to know whether ACM really guarantees stop loss orders as they claim or not. Moreover, any further information provided from you about this topic will be welcome.
Anyways, if EFX doesn’t guarantee stop loss orders, then I understand that you Hector don’t like gambling during high volatility periods of time. Otherwise, you could always try to bet because the risk reward ratio would be high in case your stop loss order was actually filled under all circumstances.
Thanks for the good advice to you all.
27 February, 10:32 pm
sorry, in the last paragraph, i mean that in case you just lost 10 pips and could earn 50 pips in a matter of seconds, it might be worth to bet.
27 February, 10:44 pm
Manuel - ACM is not an ECN. No ECN would 100% guarantee your stoploss. If there’s no counter-part at that precise price level, your stop order cannot be filled and thus the slippage. That’s the difference between ECN and retail brokers. However, I VERY much doubt anyone would guarantee a stoploss if price gaps over the weekend 50 pip beyond your stoploss level.
Daniel - all GBP-crosses are showing weakness so it’s a generalized thing across all GBP pairs. By the way, LOL at the 1-2-3 tatoo :)
PS: if you call me “Mr.” again I ban your ass out of the site haha!
-HECTOR-
27 February, 11:46 pm
Hector,
This is my NZDUSD daily chart where i drew an up channel. It has been violated to the downside but the price returned quickly:
http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/954/nzdusdchvw5.jpg
Thank you,
Jaime
27 February, 11:57 pm
I see Jaime. It’s a channel I am personally concerned about, it is not an obvious one. The best channels/trendlines are those that are obvious to every trader.
-HECTOR-
28 February, 12:50 am
Hi!
I missed the breakout of the GBPCHF to the downside, it really sucks. But I could not spot a really valid BPC, the Pullback was simply to shy, afterwards I really bite my ass, it was such great trade :-(((
Roman
28 February, 4:49 am
Daniel - Yeah I’m out of the trade at +158 pips. Was shooting for around 2.1050 which is about the 168% extension of the fall. (It should actually be like 2.1030 but I decided to be less greedy since I was leaving the trade overnight. I’m in GMT+8 here)
I do realise my risk was big, it’s something i didn’t manage well, as I was waiting for entry at 2.1220. It hit that price level and drop so fast I didn’t have a chance. So I waited for the next retracement up which seem to stall at 2.1208 for a while.
I thought heck it, risking 50 pips for 150 pips that sounds reasonable.
Thou I admit I could have waited for it to hit the newly formed resistance. (ard 2.1240 imho)
28 February, 11:14 am
You guys are right, the breakout thrust on all respective GBP-crosses (GBPCAD, GBPCHF and GBPAUD) were carried in too much momentum so there was no breakout-pullback-continuation pattern to base a conservative trigger off. However I am still following these setups for a possible new opportunity upon the first retracement.
Remember that just because you missed the first train it doesn’t mean that you won’t get a second chance later on.
-HECTOR-