Hello traders!
Well, I am sure every trader on this side of the Universe had his sound alarm at 1.6000 on EURUSD. Or at least I did myself and today it finally went off… If this keeps going like this I will have to sell my Audi and buy a Chrysler / Ford / Dodge in stead!
Anyway, so this juggernaut keeps on scoring new historical highs and I am going to try to hop along. The truth is that this currency pair is in fact one of my least favorite pairs of all because it hasn’t given me stellar results in the past. But what can I say, I think all the elements are falling in line on this one: a flat-top triangle giving way in the direction of the moving averages, the world selling off the dollar like there’s no tomorrow, a strong Euro across the board, some ECB member hinting a possible rate-rise in the near future (gasp!) if the inflation keeps raising in the Euro-zone, etc…
I am not very sure about this trade to be honest -probably because, like I just said, my track record on EURUSD is less-than-appealing to be frank- but I am just going to give it a try. Let’s see how it goes from here. There’s a screenshot uploaded below.
PS: Ops I forgot to state my entry and exit levels: I have my buy stop order right above today’s candle at 1.6020, the stoploss will be right below that very candle at 1.5830 and I am aiming for the 1.6400 whereabouts!
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22 April, 10:38 pm
Goodevening Sir Hector ;)
As per post to fx I am spotting the same nice triangle you are Hector, but i have one question regard the SL. Your entry will be at 1.6020 and stop loss at 1.5830 (isn’t that -190 pips if the trade goes bad) ? Is this a typical risk:reward ratio that you trade with hector (since the potential target is around 380pips (2:1) ?) Or would you just be decreasing your lot size just incase the trade goes the wrong way?
Waiting for everyone’s setups as we all agreed on :) !!
-Daniel-
22 April, 11:25 pm
Goodevening gentlemen,
Just a quick little update, to see what you all think of this setup:
USDCHF on Daily Chart. Clear Downtrend with fib currently creeping up at 23.6
You can see a clear descending triangle, from 0.9636 all the way up to a clear 1.000 round number
Personally, I was thinking of taking a short position around the .9950ish breakout,pullback and continuation pattern as per hector’s 3SMA system
Stoploss set to around 1.0020. First target will be at 0.9855 and will let it run towards the second target at roughly 0.9400ish
Kr,
-Daniel-
23 April, 1:20 am
Good evening all,
Daniel, that daily setup is almost a textbook bearish pennant with an enormous potential to the downside. However, .9885 looks like a more visible short entry target retesting a swing low @ April 10th, and positively smashing though a month period of volatile range trading which started on the pullback from the swing low on March 17th. April 30th, we have an USD interest rate statement, which is in 8 days…this could provide the momentum to CHF favoring traders to unleash a massive retest of .9638.
-fxJ
23 April, 9:40 am
@ Daniel
I’m with you on the USD/CHF setup. Lovely downtrend in the Daily chart with a clear retracement trendline. I’m waiting for a BPC of that line before coming up with my stop and targets. 1st target for me though would be around the 0.9755 level. Nice confluence of factors with the round number and fib line working together.
Hector,
I’m liking the EUR/USD setup as well. I was watching this yesterday, and although I too haven’t had great returns from this pair, it is undeniably showing strength. I think if your entry is triggered then the stop is placed far enough away that it should be very safe. GO EURO!
Chris P
23 April, 10:07 am
Hi guys,
The aud/usd has broken out as well. It’s not decided yet but I am considering taking the aus/usd trade over the eur/usd trade. If you look at a weekly chart of eur/aud, the aud looks to be the stronger of the two. Either way, I will be looking for a low risk entry … I don’t like taking on more than 50 pips of risk on a trade. The danger with this of course is overnight pullbacks etc can take me out early.
Cheers Ray
23 April, 10:27 pm
I do not trust the EUR/USD pattern at all. My feeling tells me there is a risk of false break. Even if it looks good I am short!
Regards
Adrian