Hello guys,
Have you seen EUR/USD? it’s on free fall!
Apparently the bulls got scared from the 1.6000 heights and price has plummeted almost 400 pips within the last two days… Which has been more than enough to make me cancel my buy stop order at 1.6020. Seems like this dish is not fully cooked yet :)
I have turned all my attention into GBP/AUD now that it’s breaking through levels of support in the direction of the trend. Today we’ve seen a little bit of a pullback after the breakout, so I am going to be on scouting mode to enter short as soon as the 2.0800 corner stone gives way.
Actually, I am just going to show you a video and get it over with!
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25 April, 1:14 am
Hi Hector:
Now this comes purely from the perspective of a new student to your system Hector, but doesn’t this setup not meet at least 3 or 4 of the 6 criteria of a valid trend…you have MA crossovers, 13 bars penetrating the 50MA, bars approaching the 100MA, the SMAs are not in order, etc. Obviously, this would not be a trade setup for a newbie to your system. Though you have a downtrend, is it valid per your system…keep in mind I am still on Chapter 1 and do not have the big picture yet, but according to your rules, this is an ugly trend, yes or no?
25 April, 1:17 am
I forgot to mention my comments are regarding the GBP/AUD setup.
25 April, 5:56 am
Hey there sir hector!
Very sad indeed we didn’t get the explosion from the EUR/USD; that’s trading for us I guess :)
One quick question/comment on the video if I may Hector: You mentioned that the support that’s holding the GBP/AUD is at 2.0930 however on my charts I can clearly see this level actually +20 pips higher (at 2.0950 on the 4hr charts)…. Could this possibly be my broker messing around?
-Daniel
26 April, 5:58 pm
hi Daniel,
Try using the free Meta Trader 4 charts for your set-ups if you are not already doing so,…they will give you a good indication between actual market price and your brokers current ask/bid price.
James
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forexroadmap.com/FXvirtualOffice.html
27 April, 7:57 am
i thing the gbpaud is on weekly chart setup on range formation so the trigger is on daily chart, but you see after the breakout price were shooting, quite strongpullback i thing.
regards
27 April, 9:32 pm
Thank you J
Best of luck for this upcoming week pip-nuturing community ;)
28 April, 3:55 am
Good evening all,
I am spotting a nice setup on EURGBP 30 min chart. Flat top triangle, lower lows and it does look like it is about to break to the downside. All 3 sma-s are pointing down, I placed a sell stop just a bit lower than the swing low on Friday at .7849 with TP .7810 slightly above the big round number .7800 and SL .7890 again 10 pips shy of another round number .7900.
Any comments/suggestions will be appreciated.
-fxJunkiE
28 April, 6:21 am
Goodmorning Gentlemen:
I am spotting the following setup:
EURAUD on the daily forming a head and shoulders pattern.
Now zooming on the 4hr timeframe, we can spot a good downtrend forming, with a retracement actually taking place back up to 1.6750 area.
A break below the 1.6700 should put us in short mode today right?
-Daniel-
28 April, 10:14 am
Good morning!
Hi fxJunkiE - Having a look into EURGBP Daily I’d be a little bit scared to search for short entries at this precise time. You are brave!
Hi Daniel - aye I am also liking shorts on EURAUD. We formed some massive double top on the Weekly off the 1.7400. In the 4H I am liking how we’ve breaking levels of support and we recently retested the previous swing low (1.6780) and bounced off it.
-HECTOR-
28 April, 9:08 pm
Thank you for your comments Hector :) I did manage a +30pip profit on the trade I took this morning on the EURAUD
I am seeing on the AUDNZD 4HR Time Frame good 3SMA’s however they are slowing curving to the right and starting their decline. In fact if you look at the daily chart, they are soon reaching resistance levels at around 1.2050ish area. Do you think a break below this period of consolidation (upward forming triangle) could potentially be a good trade guys ?
FX Junkie: How did your trade on the EURGBP go?
-Daniel-
29 April, 1:22 am
Good evening everyone,
if I may, I `d like to give you a quick update on my initial stop order on EUR/GBP in 30 min chart. Price actually had a momentum retest on a 3 day ago’s swing low counterintuitive to prevailing longer term bullish outlooks on Daily, massive head and shoulders h4 and violent outbreak to the downside on h1. So in my eyes 30 min chart looked pretty inviting for more of a risky but rewarding short opportunity. Took the decision after massive bearish dojis started popping up which was the reason i took a short position at all. Price was taken at around 3h after Sydney opened then retraced back to where it is now @ .7860 which i think could hold to even further downside to my initial target @ .7810 which according to Hector should be the projection. Current P&L -25 pips. I feel
nice about this setup do you ? Comments are strongly supported
-fxJunkiE
29 April, 1:25 am
Just wanted to correct my self…On H1 I am expecting further downside move after current retracements.
-fx
29 April, 4:30 pm
Hi all,
As I was suspecting Hector’s conservative approach proved me wrong again.My counter-trend short term trade got squished by the news. Good thing this is a demo trade. Stop-loss got swept out in between early NY am time GBP news. I see this as a very valuable lesson to bear in mind.
-fx
29 April, 6:02 pm
Hi fxJunkiE,
Sorry to hear about your counter-trend EURGBP trade going wrong :( Trading against the overall trend always carries an extra degree of risk that some of us chicken-traders are not willing to take.
That being said, I am seeing some signals of exhaustion on EURGBP. If today’s low at 0.7825 is taken out to the downside, we will probably see a furthe bite into this up-trend.
-HECTOR-
29 April, 7:13 pm
Afternoon all,
Hector, I am so glad that it was a demo trade because as you sometimes mention, it is good to try counter-intuitive strategies paper trading, than to go head over heels over this almost perfect set-up for a short entry risking capital. However, as someone said it way before me, DO NOT TRADE at least 2 hours before news. At one point of time when the trade was still active, I could have pocketed about 10-15 pips if my memory is right, but I decided to stick to the plan and discard the emotional desire to take what the market has to offer. On a positive note, some people pay for current market lesson with real money :)
Good luck,
-fx