Hi folks,
Just a quick post to show you USDCHF monthly chart which, as usual, is mirroring EURUSD.
As I pointed out in my last post, EURUSD has reached in my opinion a decision-taking level in the long term charts: it’s time for this pair to decide whether to continue plummeting or to gain some ground back, and that key level is 1.38. You can read all that in my previous post here on the blog.
Well, USDCHF is facing a similar dilemma, being 1.14 the make-it-or-break-it price level: if price pushing above that level, the trendline will be officially broken, some stoplosses will get triggered, stop-and-reverse traders will jump in, etc etc. In the other hand, if that level holds price below, USDCHF might once again begin to head down in the direction of the overall long-term trend.
We’ll see!
23 September, 3:25 pm
dear hector:
haven’t see you for a long time, do you think the Us treasure’s rescue plan will pass through ,what it will lead the us dollor go?
23 September, 11:46 pm
hi, Hector
I agree with your technical analysis for EUR/USD and USD/Chf. another pair that showing the same thing with that 2 pair is USD/CAD monthly. that 1.0850 is showing now as resistance. if that key level 1.0850 was holding and price continuing down that will be another down trend.. what do you think Hector…??
25 September, 4:11 am
Thanks for your analyses Hector…I prefer the longer TFs anyway….good observations. Any comments on the $Y on weekly….seems about to break down? Thanks for your efforts. If folks just look at your web site they can make good money.
25 September, 8:53 pm
Another good looking set up is the NZDUSD on the daily chart looks like it could beading to the down side again I keeping an aye on that could be some good short opportunities coming up here in the next few days.
Brian
26 September, 12:24 am
Thanks for the heads-up Brian, iv just seen the NZDUSD you were mentioning.
Looks like the trigger might occur during the overnight session if your looking to go for the whole swing.
26 September, 12:30 am
On second thoughts price is far from the trend-line, however a bpc of aspect 2 of that 123 might tempt me in.
26 September, 3:25 pm
Fabio,
It is in the area of dynamic support and resistance and is kind of meandering around in that area we will just have to watch it and see what it does. There are actually a couple of trend lines the last one being the steepest so who knows what is going to happen but it is worth watching for sure.
26 September, 9:20 pm
Hi all, I’m seeing what looks to me like a nice setup on the GBP/USD 4H timeframe, tiggered long at 1.8450, your thoughts on this setup please.
cheers Jed
29 September, 4:01 pm
Fabio,
Looks like the NZDUSD has made it’s move to the down side Lets hope it keeps going.
Brian
30 September, 1:31 am
Brian
The NZDUSD is at the 61.8 fib at 0.6630 (low to high) and running into a previously broken trendline.
Im hopeing for a bounce off it to give us a 123 and an entry below all that support.
Not totally convinced its going to go smoothly but fingers crossed.
30 September, 2:45 pm
Fabio,
I took the trade yesterday and @.6815 and ended the day +110 pips at that point I closed out half the trade. I do not think it is done yet but anything can happen.
Brian
30 September, 5:49 pm
Well done Brian Nice trade.
7 October, 10:55 pm
Well Fabio I ended the trade finally for a total of 207 pips. And the NZDUSD took off for another run to the bootom side again. I guess I could have left it alone for a few more days but all in all a good trade.
Brian
8 October, 12:38 am
Brian, What a bomb across the board yesterday!
I was away for the day and missed an easy dive. Sometimes i think the market just wait’s for me to look away. hehe.
Oh well.
I think you got out at the right time as the swing target measures perfectly to 0.6150.
Glad you got some pips
8 October, 10:13 pm
Hello everyone - nzd/usd entered at 0.6070 stop at 0.6105. Broke resistance at 0.6166 ,come back to retest fairly close, at fib 61.8. trendline down connecting .Presently 45 pips in profit. Don’t know how long i will hold because early in the day.Great method here.
8 October, 10:18 pm
Broke support i meant :)
9 October, 10:40 pm
Robby,
That pair has really plummeted over the last few weeks, I do not have a live trade open right now but I will be looking at the charts tonight to see what is going on again. Good luck on the trade let us know how you did.
10 October, 12:46 am
Good call! Most of the pairs are really trending.
12 October, 9:31 pm
Did anyone catched the USDCAD?? On the 4hr time frame, on demo account, the thing plummeted around +1100 pips. I never thought a trade could keep going for that long in the same direction.
Of course, with my usual luck, the trade was taken on my Meta4 Trading Demo Account using the MetaTrade Moving Average EA Automated Trader. How accurate this is in the long time I do not know.
But boy it was a Good Trade!
Happy trading folks!!
..::Daniel::..
17 October, 6:48 am
USDCHF (4hr Timeframe)
Goodmorning guys, my quick thoughts on this currency pair is that we are waiting for a good uptrend just about to take place.
The pair has been going through a period of consolidation in an upward movement and has been forming what appears to be a straight forward textbook ‘ascending top triangle’
Resistance level currently holding strongly on at 1.1400.
Going a bit backwards on the DAILY chart now, we can also see this area being a strong resistance point for the pair since the 10th of September.
So what I am now personally waiting for is a punch to the upside, breaking through this level, a retracement and hopefully a huge swing to the upside that should take us to the next resistance level of 1.200 round number.
Happy Trading :)
..::Daniel::..
18 October, 12:09 am
Robby any update on your position? I assume you closed out by now.
21 October, 3:52 pm
Hi, I’m new to this blog but I wanted to let you guy’s know about usd/cad 4hr chart. It’s making higher highs and higher lows and now it’s looking like a flat triangle. I’m waiting for a BPC
Take care and happy trading!!!
21 October, 4:24 pm
Hi Hector,
I wanted to share with all of you, something I discover about EUR USD (1.33) and USD CHF (1.16), on a weekly chart:
they are both next to the 61% Fibonacci retracement level from 2006 movement.
Interesrting! Look what is going now.
All the best to you,
J.C.
21 October, 4:27 pm
Yup, I know J.C. That’s why I mentioned in my previous blog post (http://www.hectortrader.com/2008/09/18/raising-my-eyebrow/) that if EUR/USD broke below 1.38, it was free fall from there to the next support level at 1.33… which is exactly what’s happened. I hope you managed to profit from that.
-HECTOR
29 October, 2:23 am
Hi Hector,
Hope your well.
Will your website be returning to the daily videos we all look forward to? Its been a very long time.
Thanks Fabio
30 October, 1:59 pm
Hi Guys -
Never posted before on Hectors site, so hello everybody…
Just wanted to see if anybody else is tracking GBPJPY EURJPY and CADJPY ?
Obvs JPY has had a record breaking resurgence over the last couple of months, and the clear trend has been down, I am watching theses crosses in the daily / 4 hourly time frames and they look like possible bearish flag formations to me. Although no clear entry signals yet. These crosses could be ready to take another leg down or poss just retest the recent lows.
My only concern is these markets have been extremely lairy recently and have already travelled a very long way in a short space of time, so these are not low risk trades.
Also it sdoes hinge a little on the action with the Dow and other stock indices because of the mkts perceived unwinding of the carry trades.
What you guys think ?
KB
4 November, 6:48 am
Another all out leg down in JPY crosses is unlikely, BOJ will be stepping in if we see new lows, with help from other central banks(presumably). That said, markets will probably linger in the lower ranges of this sell off for weeks, maybe months. Expect daily volatility to diminish in near future.
12 November, 6:54 pm
Hector ? Where are you? you are missing some fantastic market moves!! Please come back and help us stay sane!!
speak soon…. I hope… Gav
18 November, 9:35 pm
Maybe it is me - but I havent seen any valid setups for weeks. Anything I do see violates one of Hectors doctrines about when to trade and when to sit it out.
I’ve been sitting-it-out for ages. Maybe that is a good discipline I have developed, but I stillwonder if anyone is seeing any decent setups lately?
19 November, 4:23 am
Hello paris,
check out usd/sgd on the 1 hour chart.
it looks like it’s making higher lows then hit’s resistance at 1.5281 and 1.5300 level. (flat triangle) waiting on BPC on that pair.
usd/jpy, triangle on daily chart
alot of things on daily charts lately, that’s where I’ve been making pips lately but with lots of patients.
happy trading!!!!!
ps, Hector is the man!!!!!!!!!
19 November, 10:28 pm
Cheers Joe,
I have 19 currency pairs in my watch list
(mostly the obvious paris, USD/GBP/EUR/JPY/CHF/CAD/NZD
but never really looked at any other semi-exotic pairs
like usdsgd.
I’m probably missing out on some good moves.
Thanks for the tip.
20 November, 5:22 am
The markets are messy this week for sure.I did make a few pips off the auz/nzd .. otherwise i don’t see anything worth trading really. I’m trading off the 4 hr and really nothing trending the way i like it.You all take care,Robby
20 November, 12:26 pm
Hi there,
Many may have seen the triangle on EUR USD (and other USD pairs) on daily or 4H time frame.
But is there anybody courageous enough to trade it?
(see false breakout on 13th and hudge candlestick like always nowadays)
“Sitting on your hands” and waiting is a nice style of trading today…
20 November, 5:57 pm
Hi,
traingle on day chart for usd/jpy pair, waiting on BPC and I’ll let you know what happens.
20 November, 9:38 pm
..also the GBP/JPY waiting to possibly fall off the precipice at 139.0 (Flat Bottomed Triangle).
If it BPC’s then it’s practically an abyss.
I have a feeling it might not even BPC.
It might just go south like a lead balloon and never look back to the support level to retest it.
21 November, 12:15 am
Hi Paris.J
also look at GBP/JPY on the 4hour chart. looks like a sloppy channel with Ma’s. (Ma’s could be better but nothing is perfect) 11/12 to 11/20 and just broke out of that range. maybe BPC
I like sharing trading ideas!
happy trading